Ivan Toney

[BenTal]

They can fvck off. He is not Kane. Max 50m.

 

[1970*Gooner]

He won't be coming put money on it, smoke and mirrors.

 

[drippin]

Agree, but you've understated it.

In his two seasons in the premier league, he only scored 7 non-pk goals and 14 non-pk goals.
That's at a rate of 0.22 and 0.43 per 90 mins.

Eddie Nketiah is a more consistent goalscorer when excluding penalty kicks (not saying he's a better player).

This link has comparison of Nketiah, Jesus and Toney in their past two seasons. I think that's the most fair comparison. One could argue Toney found his baseline level last season, but the same for Nketiah this season, especially for finishing.

Regarding non-pk goals, Toney has 0.32 per 90, Nketiah 0.41 per 90 and Jesus 0.39 per 90. But this is not a good statistic to look at when you're comparing a midtable team to a top 3 team. Last season Arsenal made their scoring record in EPL. And the difference really isn't big, especially if you also take into account that Toney's sample size is 3x larger than Nketiah's, and 2x larger than Jesus'. That will usually even things out a bit, and if Nketiah would play as much as Toney (~3000 EPL minutes vs. ~1000), he would tire a lot more and that would affect his stats. Also Nketiah is not a clear starter like Toney, so has the advantage of playing against tired defenders often.

The better stats imo to compare is finishing, which is what Arsenal needs. This is a stat that isn't affected by the level of the team as much. Nketiah has finished over his xG this season, but last season was horrible regarding it. He isn't consistent, and can't be trusted in this regard yet. Toney has finished exactly as expected, Nketiah has 0.14 per 90 under his non-penalty xG and Jesus 0.15 under. Toney is the best and most consistent finisher.

I don't have much doubts that Toney will go up a level in a better team, how much is the question. I don't have huge hopes on landing him this January considering Brentford's troubles. It could benefit both clubs though if Brentford gets Nketiah, and Arsenal gets Toney. I'm very surprised if Brentford isn't interested in Nketiah, as he seems just like their type of young attacker. He could thrive in counter-attacks. They already have Schade who is tall and can play on the wings.

It's not a bad switch to get a younger HG striker with a long contract vs. letting Toney go who won't renew. If Nketiah lives up to his potential, they would get similar money as Toney for him later. You would also need for Nketiah to agree to it, but it would be a good career move to play a lot for a team like Brentford.

Player Comparison: Gabriel Jesus vs. Ivan Toney vs. Eddie Nketiah | FBref.com

Player Comparison: Gabriel Jesus vs. Ivan Toney vs. Eddie Nketiah

fbref.com

 

[LookingForEric]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741843792007737376

This would benefit Brentford massively and very likely will happen.

 

[Nunowoolmez]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1741843792007737376

This would benefit Brentford massively and very likely will happen.

Probably giving him assurances he can go in the summer & means they will get a bigger fee for him. It's the smart play tbh

 

[Mrs Bergkamp]

Probably giving him assurances he can go in the summer & means they will get a bigger fee for him. It's the smart play tbh

Ita good for the club but not necessarily for the player. Look at Caicedo who has to force a move

 

[A_G]

@OnlyOne Ornstein vs Mokbel, what’s going on?

 

[GDeep™]

80-100M, he’s worth 35-50M.

 

[OnlyOne]

@OnlyOne Ornstein vs Mokbel, what’s going on?

No idea. Can't see us going for him in Jan, don't see why we'd go for him in the summer.

 

[LookingForEric]

Brentford would accept £65M with add ons.

The issue is going to be us making the sales and then if the club believe it’s more important to get defensive reinforcements in first.

Given Partey and Timber are back in 2 months I would be taking that risk and going for the striker. We have defenders in the club already, we have midfielders. We NEED a forward.

 

[sakalacaxhaka]

Rumours are that we are about the make the Raya signing permanent this month

Only reason I can see for us doing this in January, and not doing it at the originally agreed time of June is that we are looking at adding a loan or a couple of loans to our squad

We can't loan anyone else from Brentford if the Raya deal isn't made permanent, but we still have space to make one premier league loan or 2 more loans from outside of premier league

The Raya permanent deal just makes me feel there is more to this, and we're going to agree a loan fee with a guaranteed package at the end of the season which fits in with Brentfords valuation and also helps us with FFP

 

[Tnegs]

80-100M, he’s worth 35-50M.

Relegation from the PL costs about 80-100 mil per year and there is no guarantee you come straight back. No way he’s going for cheap there is too much at stake.

 

[A_G]

 

[field442]

I see him keep repeating this "money will have to go on Raya" stuff but he reported it as an option and even if it was an obligation, that's something for the end of the season.

 

[OnlyOne]

Doing a little too much for my liking. I think we’re all in on Tonez.

 

[Sanchez11]

100m is crazy man, every player is now 100m ffs. Crazy world we live on!

 

[daron christie]

That comment signals Toney on loan until summer and making Raya permanent this window if possible

 

[Rasmi]

Can’t blame Brentford for wanting 100 million. They know Arteta is desperate and is not gonna go anywhere else. Arsenal will probably agree 85-90 million for him

 

[roz]

One small relapse and Toney is out for the best years of his career. A club would have to be crazy to spend 70+ million on him.

Realistically only Chelsea are that stupid.

Also whilst he’s no doubt a good player he seems seriously overrated to me, thats before you even take the gambling into account. Surely there are better options?

 

[Rasmi]

One small relapse and Toney is out for the best years of his career. A club would have to be crazy to spend 70+ million on him.

Realistically only Chelsea are that stupid.

Also whilst he’s no doubt a good player he seems seriously overrated to me, thats before you even take the gambling into account. Surely there are better options?

Exactly it’s such a stupid risk. But unlike other clubs we have no football director who has a say. Anything Arteta says goes. Gambling addiction is such a hard addiction to get rid off. Add to the fact he hasn’t played in 8 months no one knows his current condition